Assessing the conservation of eastern Ecuadorian cloud forests in climate change scenarios

Abstract

The Tropical Montane Cloud Forests (TMCF) of South America are ecosystems facing rapid changes due to global warming. Herein, we used species climatic niche models to reconstruct the climatic boundaries of TMCF and to predict range shifts in climate change scenarios. Thirty-two species from three taxonomic groups (plants, birds, andamphibians) weremodelledusing community-levelnichemodelsunder current and future climatic scenarios, as determined by two Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the year 2050. The community-level reconstructions were used to detect the overlap of TMCF with surrounding ecosystems and with current protected areas (PA). Approximate 42–54% area reduction and 207–429 m upward elevational shift was predicted under climate scenarios. Accordingly, severe environmental contractions (loss of suitability area) due to climate change were detected by our models. TMCF area within PA may increase 17–38% by 2050. We identified transition zones rather than clear limits of vegetationa