Future oil extraction in Ecuador using a Hubbert approach

Abstract

Hubbert based models to project future oil extraction in Ecuador were developed. Two values of ultimaterecoverable resources (URR) (7860e10,700 million barrels (MMbbl)) are applied to 16 models, consid-ering symmetric and asymmetric Hubbert models and one and two cycles under top-down and bottom-up approaches. Models are discussed based on the bestfit to historical data, and year and value ofmaximum extraction. The peak oil extraction obtained ranges between 196 and 215 MMbbl and wouldbe reached in the years 2014e2025. An analysis of the implications of extraction models in a Business asUsual and Alternative oil demand scenarios up to 2035 was performed. Ecuador could become a net oilimporter between 2024 and 2035, depending on the model and demand scenario. Economic oil tradebalance could be seriously affected, decreasing from a current positive value of around 2 billion USD toincur deficits of 0.6e16.7 billion USD in 2035. Current and future oil dependence for Ecuador wouldincrease vulnerability and compromise the country in terms of energy security and trade balance. It iscritical for Ecuador to consider more ambitious policies focused on energy efficiency, renewables anddiversification of the productive structure over the next few years.