Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to develop a system dynamics model to assess the energy future up to 2050 for Ecuador considering its condition of oil producing country. Three scenarios have been developed with different assumptions regarding national and global oil availability under a Business-As-Usual narrative.

Energy demand would have a 2.4-fold increase by 2050 with predominance of petroleum products in a BAU scenario with unlimited oil access. In constrained scenarios, restricted availability of oil might pressure final demand to be reduced in 31%–40% compared to BAU. Limited imports of oil and petroleum products might produce shortages in supply, causing a downfall in economic activity in sectors with high dependency on these fuels Electricity would partially substitute fossil fuels but is not enough to offset economy decay in constrained scenarios. Limiting oil exports would not have an important effect since the decline of Ecuador's oil wells is expected to be too fast. Oil exports would cease by 2030–2045. When BAU scenarios are evaluated considering limited fossil energy access in a decaying world oil production, arise the necessity to explore new strategies to deal with an energy/economic shock.